Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

A new study published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (March 2026) has warned that the saddle dam of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is showing critical signs of instability, raising concerns over potential geohazard risks for downstream countries.

Key Findings

• The GERD saddle dam — an auxiliary structure about 5 km long and 50 metres high — is considered the largest and most critical saddle dam in the world.
• Researchers described it as an active geohazard hotspot, with structural instability that could pose major risks if breached.
• The saddle dam reportedly holds around 89% of the GERD reservoir’s live storage, exceeding the average annual flow of the Blue Nile at the GERD site.

Regional Implications

Experts warn that a failure of the saddle dam could lead to catastrophic flooding downstream, threatening millions of people in Sudan and Egypt, both of which depend heavily on Nile waters for agriculture and drinking supply.

Background

The GERD, located on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia, is Africa’s largest hydroelectric project and has been at the centre of long-standing water-sharing tensions among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. The new findings highlight the importance of continuous monitoring and cooperative management to address safety, environmental, and geopolitical concerns.

Source: DTE