IIT Bombay Develops SARIMA Model to Forecast City-Level Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay) have developed a city-specific statistical model named SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) to forecast greenhouse gas (GHG) levels in Indian metros.

The model is designed to assist policymakers in evaluating whether initiatives such as improving public transport, tightening industrial emission norms, or enhancing landfill management are leading to measurable emission reductions.

Use of Satellite-Derived Data

The researchers study utilized satellite-based measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) to fine-tune the SARIMA model for Delhi and Mumbai.
Researchers demonstrated that such data can “reliably” measure GHG concentrations across major cities, providing a cost-effective and consistent monitoring tool.

Identifying Emission Hotspots

The study identified methane hotspots in both cities — areas often associated with wastewater systems, landfills, or industrial clusters.
By mapping these zones, the model can help target site-specific interventions to reduce emissions.

SARIMA: A Climate Forecasting Tool

Much like a weather forecast, SARIMA predicts seasonal variations and future trends in GHG levels by analyzing historical emission data.
This makes it possible to anticipate emission surges linked to seasonal factors such as temperature, rainfall, or industrial activity.

Alignment with Paris Climate Goals

The study underscores that 195 nations, including India, are signatories to the 2016 Paris Accord, which seeks to limit global warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Accurate estimation and forecasting of CO₂ and CH₄ levels are vital for tracking progress toward Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the accord.

Source: TH