India Becomes World’s Fourth-Largest Economy

India has overtaken Japan to emerge as the world’s fourth-largest economy, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of USD 4.18 trillion, the government said. The United States remains the largest economy, followed by China and Germany.

Set to Overtake Germany by 2030

With sustained high growth, India is poised to displace Germany from the third position in the next 2.5 to 3 years. The government projects India’s GDP to reach USD 7.3 trillion by 2030, reflecting strong economic fundamentals and reform-driven expansion.

Robust Growth Momentum Continues

India remains the world’s fastest-growing major economy. Real GDP growth accelerated to 8.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2025-26, up from 7.8 per cent in Q1 and 7.4 per cent in the last quarter of the previous fiscal. This marks a six-quarter high, underlining resilience despite global trade uncertainties.

Domestic Demand Drives Expansion

The government noted that robust private consumption has been a key driver of growth, helping cushion the economy against external headwinds. Strong domestic demand has played a central role in sustaining the current growth trajectory.

Global Agencies Raise Growth Projections

International institutions have echoed optimism about India’s economic prospects.

• IMF: 6.6% growth in 2025, 6.2% in 2026
• World Bank: 6.5% growth in 2026
• Moody’s: 6.4% in 2026, 6.5% in 2027
• OECD: 6.7% in 2025, 6.2% in 2026
• ADB: 7.2% growth forecast for 2025
• Fitch: Raised FY26 projection to 7.4%
• S&P: 6.5% growth in current fiscal, 6.7% next year

Path to High Middle-Income Status

The government said India is well-positioned to sustain this momentum as it works towards attaining high middle-income status by 2047, the centenary year of Independence, building on strong growth, structural reforms, and social progress.