Land Gap 2025 Report Warns of Unrealistic Land-Based Climate Targets at COP30

The Land Gap 2025 report, released at the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belem Brazil, raises serious concerns about countries’ overdependence on land-based carbon removal to meet net-zero commitments. Led by the University of Melbourne along with a global consortium of experts, the report urges nations to prioritise halting deforestation and phasing out fossil fuels instead of relying on impractical carbon-offset schemes.

Key Highlights of the Report

• Overreliance on Land-Based Carbon Removal

• Countries are depending excessively on tree planting, forest restoration, and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to meet their climate goals.
• Experts warn these approaches are unrealistic at the proposed scale and divert attention from essential emission-reduction measures.

• Released at COP30

• The report was made public on November 12, 2025, during the COP30 summit in Brazil.
• It assesses all national climate pledges updated up to October 31, 2025, including NDCs and long-term net-zero strategies for 2050.

• Two Major Flaws Identified in Climate Plans

1. The “Land Gap”
   • A mismatch between the land area governments expect to use for carbon removal and what is realistically available.
2. The “Forest Gap”
   • A major gap between the global commitment to halt forest loss by 2030 and what current pledges will actually deliver.

• Risks to Vulnerable Communities

• Proposed land-use plans threaten territories crucial for Indigenous Peoples, local communities, and smallholder farmers.
• Large-scale land acquisition for carbon removal could deepen inequalities and trigger land-use conflicts.

• Continuing Deforestation Trends

• The annual global deforestation rate in 2030 is projected to remain at 4 million hectares.
• An additional 16 million hectares of forests are expected to be degraded—creating a 20-million-hectare forest gap.

• Massive Land Demand for Carbon Removal

• Countries collectively plan to use over 1 billion hectares of land for carbon-removal activities.
• This estimate is slightly higher than projections in the Land Gap 2022 report, underscoring worsening reliance on land-based offsets.

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