State of the World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis

A new UN demographic report, titled “State of the World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis,” estimates India’s population to have reached 146.39 crore (1.4639 billion) by April 2025. The report was released by United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

Total Fertility Rate

• The report highlights a significant demographic shift, noting that the country’s total fertility rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, falling below the replacement level of 2.1.
• The TFR measures the number of children a woman is expected to have throughout her reproductive age.
• The latest Sample Registration System statistical report published by the Office of the Registrar General of India for 2021 reported India’s TFR at 2.0, consistent with the previous year. This report also stated that the replacement level TFR, the rate needed for each generation to replace the previous generation’s population, “has been attained” nationally. The UN report’s current TFR of 1.9 further solidifies this trend.

Key Demographic Projections

• India’s population to grow further, reaching 170 crore (1.7 billion) before starting to dip in approximately 40 years.
• The report designates India as the “world’s most populous nation,” surpassing former leader China, whose current population is pegged at 141.61 crore (1.4161 billion).
• Approximately 24% of the population falls within the 0-14 age bracket, 17% in the 10-19 age group, and 26% in the 10-24 age group.
• The report estimates that 68% of India’s population is of working age (15-64 years), indicating a substantial demographic dividend. The elderly population (65 and older) currently stands at 7%.
• As of 2025, the UN report projects life expectancy at birth to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women in India.