What: Monsoon forecast
Who: IMD
How much: 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA)
- As per the IMD forecast released on April 16, 20167, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%.
- The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.
- Forecast also suggests maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104% of LPA) and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.
About Monsoon Forecasting
- India Meteorological Department (IMD) issues operational forecast for the southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole in two stages.
- The first stage forecast is issued in April and the second stage forecast is issued in June.
- These forecasts are prepared using state-of-the-art Statistical Ensemble Forecasting system (SEFS) that is critically reviewed and improved regularly through in-house research activities.
- Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts. For this purpose, the latest version of the high resolution (horizontal resolution of approximately 38km (T382) Monsoon Mission CFS (MMCFS) was implemented in January 2017 at the Office of Climate Research and Services, IMD, Pune.
