IMD Launches AI-Based Block-Level Monsoon Forecasting System

Ahead of the 2026 southwest monsoon season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has introduced a new Artificial Intelligence-based forecasting system that will provide block-level forecasts for the arrival of the monsoon across several parts of India.

The new system will, for the first time, generate forecasts at the ‘block’ level across 15 States, covering nearly half of India’s approximately 7,200 administrative blocks.

Developed with Scientific Institutions

The forecasting system has been developed by the IMD in collaboration with the following institutions:

• Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune
• National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF)

The initiative represents a major advancement in India’s weather forecasting capabilities through the use of Artificial Intelligence and high-resolution meteorological data.

Need for Block-Level Forecasts

Traditionally, monsoon arrival forecasts have been issued mainly at the State or district level. For example, the monsoon generally reaches Mumbai around 10 June and Delhi around 29 June.

However, the monsoon exhibits significant local variability. Even after the monsoon officially reaches a district, several blocks or villages within that district may continue to remain dry for days.

The new block-level forecasting system is expected to address this gap by offering much more localised and precise predictions.

Importance of the New System

The initiative is expected to benefit:

• Farmers and agricultural planners through better crop planning
• Disaster management authorities by improving preparedness
• Water resource managers for local-level planning
• Rural administrations in monitoring rainfall distribution

More accurate local forecasts can help reduce uncertainty associated with monsoon variability, especially in rain-dependent agricultural regions.