INCOIS Launches Specialized El Niño Bulletins

The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, has started issuing Specialized El Niño Bulletins to provide timely information on the likely impacts of the developing El Niño event on India’s maritime sectors.

The first specialized bulletin was released on 22 June 2026 at an event held at INCOIS.

What is El Niño?

El Niño (Spanish for “the Christ Child”) refers to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is a phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and can significantly influence weather patterns, ocean conditions, fisheries, and ecosystems across the globe.

Key Findings of the Bulletin

• The El Niño event is continuing to develop and is expected to peak during the winter season (November 2026–January 2027).
• Sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean are likely to remain above normal until April–May 2027.
• The marine ecosystem of the northern Indian Ocean, including both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, is expected to experience thermal stress, particularly during March–May 2027.

Likely Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

The bulletin warns of several ecological consequences:

• Increased coral reef bleaching due to elevated ocean temperatures.
• More frequent and intense marine heat waves.
• Reduction in fish catch, particularly sardine and mackerel species, as fish stocks may migrate to more suitable habitats.
• Lower recruitment of fish populations and slower growth rates, resulting in fish not attaining their desired sizes.

Impacts on India’s Coasts

East Coast and Bay of Bengal

• The Bay of Bengal is likely to witness a rougher sea state during the monsoon season.
• Higher chances of coastal erosion, storm-induced flooding, and shoreline inundation along India’s east coast.

West Coast and Arabian Sea

• The Arabian Sea is expected to remain calmer than usual.
• Improved sea conditions could provide a larger operational window for shipping, fisheries, offshore activities, and other marine sectors.
• Coastal erosion and inundation risks are likely to be lower along the west coast during the monsoon season.

Source: PIB

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