Indian Monsoon Progress Stalled: Responsible Factors

The Southwest Monsoon made a slightly delayed onset over Kerala on 4 June 2026 and rapidly covered most of southern, eastern and northeastern India by 15 June. However, its progress has since slowed due to the simultaneous influence of several unfavourable atmospheric and oceanic factors.

• The June–September Southwest Monsoon contributes over 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is vital for agriculture, water resources, and the economy.

Normal Monsoon Progress

• Reaches the Andaman Sea in the third week of May.
• Advances into Kerala around 1 June.
• Covers North Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and adjoining areas by the end of June.
• Normally covers the entire country by 15 July.

Factors Responsible for the Slowdown

• Developing El Niño: Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific weaken the monsoon circulation and are generally associated with below-normal rainfall.
• Weak Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO): The eastward-moving tropical weather system is currently weak, reducing cloud formation and rainfall over the Indian region.
• Dry Westerly Winds: Dry air over northwestern and central India suppresses moisture availability and rainfall.
• Weak Somali Jet: The low-level cross-equatorial wind that transports moisture from the Arabian Sea is weaker than normal, reducing moisture inflow.
• Absence of Bay of Bengal Low-Pressure Systems: Fewer low-pressure systems have slowed the advance of the monsoon into northern and central India.
• Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): The IOD remains neutral, providing no additional support to monsoon rainfall. A positive IOD generally strengthens the Indian monsoon and can partly offset the impact of El Niño.

Key Terms

• El Niño: Periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that generally weakens the Indian monsoon.
• Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO): An eastward-moving tropical system of clouds, rainfall and winds that influences the active and break phases of the monsoon.
• Somali Jet: A strong low-level wind along the Somali coast that transports moisture from the Arabian Sea to the Indian subcontinent.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean. A positive IOD generally favours stronger monsoon rainfall over India.

Sources: IE & DTE

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