India’s Total Fertility Rate is now below replacement level-SRS 2024

According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2024 published by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner under the Union Ministry of Home Affairs, India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined below the replacement level of 2.1. India’s TFR for 2024 is estimated at 1.9.

What is Total Fertility Rate (TFR)?

• Total Fertility Rate refers to the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her reproductive years (15–49 years), assuming current age-specific fertility rates remain constant.
• A TFR of 2.1 is considered the “replacement level fertility,” at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next without migration.

Key Findings of the Report

• India’s TFR declined to 1.9 in 2024, indicating a continuing fall in fertility levels across the country.
• Rural India recorded a higher TFR of 2.1 compared to 1.5 in urban areas.

Among major States and Union Territories:

• Bihar recorded the highest TFR at 2.9.
• Uttar Pradesh followed with 2.6.
• Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan recorded 2.4 and 2.3 respectively.

At the lower end:

• Delhi recorded the lowest TFR at 1.2.
• Tamil Nadu, Kerala and West Bengal each recorded 1.3.
• Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Maharashtra and Punjab recorded 1.4.

Rural-Urban Trends

• TFR in urban areas remained lower than rural areas across almost all major States and UTs.
• An exception was Kerala, where urban TFR was slightly higher, while Tamil Nadu recorded equal TFR in both rural and urban areas.

Long-Term Decline in Fertility

• India’s fertility rate has steadily declined over the decades from 5.2 in 1971 to 4.5 in 1981 and from 3.6 in 1991 to 1.9 in 2024.
• In rural areas, TFR declined from 5.4 in 1971 to 2.1 in 2024. In urban areas, it fell from 4.1 to 1.5 during the same period.

States Showing Sharpest Decline

• Between 2012–14 and 2022–24 Delhi recorded the highest percentage decline in TFR at 29.4%, Gujarat followed with 25% and Tamil Nadu recorded a decline of 23.5%.
• The lowest decline was observed in Bihar at 9.4%, Chhattisgarh at 11.5% and Himachal Pradesh and Punjab at 11.8% each.

Source: DTE