Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return : GS TIMES IAS-PCS

Why in News?

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in its Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return, has warned that global temperatures are likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels. The report calls for urgent and substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimise the magnitude and duration of temperature overshoot and return to 1.5°C by the end of the century.

Key Findings of the Report

Temperature overshoot scenario: The report examines a scenario in which global warming peaks at around 1.7–1.8°C above pre-industrial levels around the middle of the century and returns to or below 1.5°C by 2100, with approximately a 50% probability.

Required reduction in greenhouse gas emissions: To follow this pathway, global greenhouse gas emissions would need to decline relative to 2025 levels as follows:

Year	Required emissions reduction
2030	18%
2035	45%
2040	69%

The report indicates that emissions would need to decline at an average annual rate of approximately 5.7% during 2025–2035.

Gap between required action and national commitments: Full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would reduce global emissions by only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035, relative to 2025 levels. This remains substantially below the reductions required for the lowest-possible 1.5°C overshoot pathway.

Projected global warming: Under current policies: Global warming could reach 2.8°C during this century and increase thereafter. With full implementation of NDCs: Warming could be limited to approximately 2.6°C, provided comparable efforts continue.

Opportunities for accelerating climate action: Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, renewable energy deployment has expanded significantly, the growth in total energy supply from coal and oil has been slower than previously projected, and climate policies have reduced emissions in several places.

However, recent trends in absolute greenhouse gas emissions remain inconsistent with the required trajectory, including emissions from energy systems, road transport and non-CO₂ sources, particularly methane.

Global Stocktake and Climate Commitments

The first Global Stocktake (GST) under the Paris Agreement identified several actions for strengthening climate mitigation: