Southwest monsoon (June–September) rainfall forecast

The India Meteorological Department has forecast that the southwest monsoon (June–September) rainfall in 2026 is likely to be 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of ±5%. This places the monsoon in the “below normal” category. The LPA for the 1971–2020 period stands at 87 cm.

ENSO Conditions Transitioning to Neutral
Current conditions over the equatorial Pacific indicate a transition from weak La Niña-like conditions to ENSO-neutral. While ocean temperatures are stabilizing, some atmospheric circulation patterns still reflect residual La Niña-like features, which may influence early monsoon dynamics.

IOD Likely to Turn Positive Late in Season
The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently in a neutral phase. However, climate model forecasts suggest a shift toward positive IOD conditions in the latter half of the monsoon season. A positive IOD typically supports enhanced rainfall over India, potentially offsetting deficits in later months.

Sea Surface Temperatures Under Watch
The IMD emphasized that sea surface temperature (SST) patterns over both the Pacific and Indian Oceans are critical drivers of monsoon variability. Continuous monitoring is underway to track evolving ocean-atmosphere interactions.

Snow Cover Slightly Below Normal
The Northern Hemisphere snow cover during January–March 2026 was reported to be slightly below normal. Historically, reduced snow cover over Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere has an inverse relationship with Indian monsoon rainfall, which may provide some positive influence.

Source: PIB